The Curious Case of Cam Ward: An Attempt to Quantify "Luck" in Goaltending

As a WHL guy, a Canadian and a sucker for the underdog, I'm a big fan of Cam Ward. I think he is (at least was) a good goalie, with some very bad luck. So, I am going to go back and watch a bunch of goals from his most recent seasons and skew the data to agree with my hot take. I will also take a look at Carey Price's current season as I think he is the closest there is to the consensus #1 goalie in the world. The perfect juxtaposition for Cam Ward.

I've also included Corey Crawford (2017-2018) for those that take issue with Carey Price's inclusion in this report.

My goal was originally to look at his best statistical season (2010-11) and his worst statistical seasons (2005-06, 2006-07), however due to the availability of game footage, that won't be possible at this time. 

The determining factors in looking at these goals are:

Deflection by teammate (DxT), Deflection by opponent (DxO), Own Goal by Teammate (OGxT), Breakaway/Defensive Failure (DEF), Interference by Opponent (IxO), Interference by Teammate (IxT), Equipment Malfunction (EQ).

I will not look specifically at Shorthanded Goals (SHG) and Powerplay Goals (PPG), because, in my opinion, they are an inevitability that a goaltender should be reasonably prepared to expect.

The above markers, are NOT mutually exclusive and goals against may encompass multiple criteria. I believe you can quantify a goalie's luck, like PDO, but for goals against, and it's largely out of their control. I will determine a fair chance goal (FCG) as anything that does not fit the above criteria. Good goals may not be marked in any of the above disqualifying markers in addition to being a "fair chance goal."

A "fair chance goal", by the definition of this case study will involve: any shot that the goaltender attempts (and fails) to stop that is not deflected by the opposing team, or his/her own teammates; in an instance when the goaltender is not interfered with by the opposing team, or his/her own teammates; and is not the only means of defense between the shooter and the goal (disqualifying breakaways and penalty shots.)

First, let's look at his most recent season...

Note: I am using game footage to watch each goal against on NHL.com. NHL.com is a horrible website and I hate it very much.

2017-18 - Cam Ward

Let's start with a look at this season and then work backwards from there. So far this season (Dec. 08, 2018) Cam Ward has 8 games played with a 4-2-1 record, .906 SAV% and a 3.12 GAA

He has 24 goals against thus far, so let's look at them.

DxT: 4.166 (1/24)

DxO: 16.666 (4/24)

DEF: 20.833 (5/24)

IxO: 8.333 (2/24)

FCG: 50.000 (12/24)

Adj SV%: .952

Alright, so this is the first time these stats have ever been seen. What do they mean? Well, the FCG means that 50% of the goals against, Cam Ward had every opportunity to stop. So, let's adjust his goals against average to allow for that. The other percentages, are means by which to disqualify goals and illustrate alternative inefficiencies in the defending team, they aren't necessary to expand upon, and I sure as hell don't have the time or patience to cite each and every one.

With that adjustment, Cam Ward's SAV% is a much better .952. Now, we don't know what that means, so it's important to not assume that this makes Cam Ward the best goalie to ever play. For all we know, Carey Price is a 1.000 goalie. There is no context for this, but I think it shows how much a goalie relies on their defensemen to make good, smart plays to give them a chance.

For example, Cam Ward was bad against the Leafs on Nov. 24. I think I marked every single one of his 5 goals against as FCG. He should have stopped all of them. The game on Nov. 2 against the Colorado Avalanche was a shit show. Tip ins, defensive breakdowns, it was a disaster.

For the next two seasons, because the sample-size is so much larger I am going to leave out most of the commentary and focus on the percentages. Again, this is primarily because we have no context in which to measure the value of these statistics. I might post a video like the one above if I find a game that is a particularly good example of either disqualifying factors or "fair chance goals."

2016-17 - Cam Ward

2016-17, Wardo (Wardo?) played 61 fuckin' games, god damnit, and had 26 wins. His .905 SV% was awful, but his 2.69 GAA isn't totally insanely brutal. 

He let in 162 goals against:

DxO: 10.494 (17/162)

DxT: 9.259 (15/162)

OGxT: 2.469 (4/162)

DEF: 10.494 (17/162)

IxO: 4.938 (8/162)

IxT: 4.321 (7/162)

FCG: 61.728 (100/162)

Adj SAV%: .941


This stood out...

So did Justin Faulk. I don't know if it just has to do with his ice-time, he shared the team lead with Jacob Slavin. For whatever reason, Faulk was just always there as part of a disqualifier. He would be laying on Cam Ward, re-directing shots from the point, or getting beat for a breakaway.

Beyond that though, having watched an entire Cam Ward season, this guy plays so much. I'm pretty convinced that there is an issue behind the bench. Starting your aging #1 in back to back games eight times over the course of a season is just bad asset management.

The defenders also seem to consistently choose to black the shooting lane with their stick. This is a huge problem because it ends in re-directions, which are more difficult for a goaltender to stop. This season, Cam Ward's goals against total was affected by 15 of these sort of scenarios, and another 4 own goals (that being an event which the defending player actively re-directs the puck into their own net.)

2017-2018 - Carey Price

Carey Price had a pretty noticeable start to the 18-19 season for all the wrong reasons. In his first 11 games of the season, he posted a SAV% above .900 only 3 times. That not good.

So far, to date (Dec 09, 2018) Carey Price has 8 wins in 19 games played, 56 goals against and a .899 SAV%. Let's look at those 56 goals:

DxT: 12.500

DxO: 10.714

DEF: 3.571

IxO: 3.571

IxT: 10.714

FCG: 64.285 (36/56)

Adj SAV%: .935

There ya have it folks, Carey Price has a worse adjusted save percentage over this season (more than 550 shots against) than Cam Ward. Blame it on injury, blame it on sample-size, that isn't the point. This is not an indictment on Carey Price, he IS the best goaltender in the world. The point of this is to quantify luck in goaltending. It's not even necessarily about the quality of the defenders, though it is part of the formula. This is about having some perspective and nuance in the discussion about quality of goaltending and the effect of "bad bounces" on the outcome of games and the outcome of a career.

Consider this: Carey Price just signed a $10.5 million per year contract, while Cam Ward makes $3.3 million on a contract that doesn't go beyond this season. There is - this season - a difference of .018 in Cam Ward's favor. .018 is the difference between a career .909 goalie like Cam Ward and a .927 which would be the greatest all-time (non-adjusted) career SAV% in NHL history.

Defense counts. You need an entire team to buy in. You need that because as we can see above, the variance between the best starting goalie and the "worst" is minute at the best of times.

2017-2018: Corey Crawford

Corey Crawford, to date (Dec 10, 2017), has recorded 13 wins in 23 games played with 49 goals against. His primary stats are 2.21 GAA and .932 SAV%.

DxT: 2.040

DxO: 12.244

DEF: 10.204

IxT: 8.163

FCG: 79.591 (39/49)

Adj SAV%: .945 

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